Overview
- The disturbance in the central Caribbean is producing 45 mph winds and is given a near‑certain chance to organize, with the next name on the list being Melissa.
- Forecasters flag heavy rain and gusty winds for the ABC Islands over the next couple of days, with risks of flooding, strong winds and hazardous surf later this week for Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba.
- Model guidance remains divided, with many solutions curving the system toward Hispaniola by the weekend while others keep it weaker and drifting west toward Central America.
- Exceptionally warm Caribbean waters and decreasing wind shear favor rapid organization, and some forecasts strengthen the system to a hurricane by the weekend.
- Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate today, and early expert assessments indicate no current threat to the Florida or mainland U.S. coast.