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2h ago

NHC Cuts Florida Formation Odds to 0% as Coastal Flood Threat Grows, Eyes Atlantic Wave at 50%

Forecasters expect flooding rain for Florida this weekend with dangerous surf as attention turns to a tropical wave that could organize near the Lesser Antilles next week.

A map from the National Hurricane Center shows two disturbances in the Atlantic.
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Overview

  • The National Hurricane Center’s Saturday morning outlook reduced the Bahamas–Florida low to a 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation, though heavy rain could trigger flash flooding in parts of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas.
  • Flood watches are posted for portions of east‑central Florida through Sunday, with high surf and a high rip‑current risk along the east coast where 5–8 foot breakers and small craft advisories are in effect.
  • The weak low will meander near Florida and the Bahamas through the weekend, drifting west‑northwest as strong upper‑level winds keep it disorganized and limit it to a rainmaker.
  • A separate tropical wave just off Africa carries a 50% seven‑day development chance, with forecasters saying a tropical depression could form near or east of the Lesser Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week.
  • A weak low in the north‑central Gulf also holds 0% development odds as it moves toward the Texas coast, with no cyclone formation expected but some added moisture possible for Gulf Coast rain chances.