Overview
- The NHC’s Monday 2 p.m. EDT outlook raises probabilities to 70% in 48 hours and 90% in seven days, with formation likely between Tuesday and Wednesday as the system slows over the warm central Caribbean.
- Recent satellite and surface data show the wave lacks a closed circulation but is gradually organizing, with concentrated showers and thunderstorms near and east of its axis.
- Authorities highlight the potential for heavy rain and strong gusts in Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao in the next few days, and advise Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba to monitor for weekend hazards.
- If named, the system would be Melissa, the 13th Atlantic storm of 2025, and forecast models differ on future track and strength, including scenarios that later curve toward the U.S. Southeast.
- Mexico’s Conagua/SMN reports roughly 70% seven‑day odds for formation east‑southeast of Quintana Roo, while also tracking a low‑chance Atlantic system dubbed Nestor and a Pacific low south of Chiapas that could become Sonia.