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5h ago

Newsom Ties Harris in 2028 Democratic Averages as New Emerson Poll Puts Him on Top

Analysts caution the undeclared governor’s early surge may be temporary.

CaliforniaGov. Gavin Newsom at a press conference to discuss the measures approved by the legislature to redraw the state's Congressional districts and put new maps before voters in a special election, in Sacramento, Calif.., Thursday, Aug. 21, 2025.
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Overview

  • Political Polls’ aggregation of eight surveys now shows Gavin Newsom level with Kamala Harris in early 2028 Democratic primary averages.
  • Emerson College’s latest poll finds roughly a quarter of Democrats backing Newsom, a 13-point jump since June that places him ahead of Pete Buttigieg and Harris.
  • In the Emerson snapshot, Buttigieg registers 16% and Harris 11%, with others including Josh Shapiro, JB Pritzker and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in single digits.
  • Betting market Polymarket currently gives Newsom about a 35% chance of securing the Democratic nomination, reflecting his recent rise in visibility.
  • Experts urge caution, describing the gains as early and potentially seasonal, even as Emerson also shows Republican Vice President J.D. Vance leading his party and a Vance–Newsom trial heat split evenly.