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last mo.

Newsom Surges in 2028 Buzz: Ties Harris in Averages, Hits 25% in New Poll

Strategists credit a sharpened national persona built on confrontations with President Trump for the surge.

President Donald Trump, right, speaks during a cabinet meeting, Aug. 26, 2025, at the White House in Washington and California Gov. Gavin Newsom is seen at a press conference in Sacramento, Calif., Aug. 21, 2025.
CaliforniaGov. Gavin Newsom at a press conference to discuss the measures approved by the legislature to redraw the state's Congressional districts and put new maps before voters in a special election, in Sacramento, Calif.., Thursday, Aug. 21, 2025.
California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks to reporters in Antioch, California on August 11, 2022.
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Overview

  • An aggregation by Political Polls now shows Gavin Newsom tied with Kamala Harris nationally in hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary matchups.
  • An Emerson College survey released late last month found roughly one-quarter of Democratic voters backing Newsom, placing him ahead of Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg in that poll.
  • Other recent surveys show momentum building for Newsom, including McLaughlin (9% to 18% from July to August) and Morning Consult (11% to 19% from June to August).
  • Betting markets have elevated his standing, with OddsChecker listing him among the top overall contenders and prior Polymarket odds giving him a substantial chance at the Democratic nomination.
  • Newsom has not declared a 2028 bid, and analysts warn it is early in the cycle, with formal campaign moves typically coming after the 2026 midterms and once his governorship ends in early 2027.