Overview

• Echelon Insights’ August 14–18 survey places Gavin Newsom at 13% among potential Democratic contenders, second to Kamala Harris at 26%, with Pete Buttigieg at 11% and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 6% (margin of error 3.6%, n=1,057).
• Polymarket traders now give Newsom roughly a 21% chance and a 7-point edge over Ocasio-Cortez in a hypothetical nomination matchup, up from a 4-point lead earlier this month.
• Newsom’s recent visibility stems from public confrontations with Trump over Texas redistricting and the deployment of federal forces to Los Angeles, plus an aggressive social-media strategy that parodies the president’s style.
• Analysts caution that these signals mainly reflect name recognition and early enthusiasm, even as Democratic strategists say voters are rewarding Newsom’s more combative posture.
• Neither Newsom nor other leading Democrats have declared for 2028, and formal announcements are not typically expected until after the November 2026 midterm elections.