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New Zealand Jobless Rate Climbs to 5.3%, Reinforcing Odds of a November Rate Cut

Soft wage growth with rising slack bolsters expectations of further central bank easing this month.

Overview

  • Stats NZ reported unemployment at 5.3% in the September quarter, the highest since 2016, with overall employment essentially unchanged and participation at 70.3%.
  • The number of people unemployed rose to 160,000, the most since early 1994, and underutilisation increased to 12.9%, signaling more spare capacity.
  • Annual wage growth slowed to 2.1% on the broad measure, below roughly 3% consumer price inflation, indicating continued pressure on real incomes.
  • Economists say the data strengthens the case for another 25 basis point cut later in November after about 300 basis points of easing since August 2024.
  • Labour market pain is uneven, with youth unemployment at 15.2% and joblessness above 6% in Northland, Auckland and Waikato, while the New Zealand dollar briefly hit a seven-month low after the release.