Overview
- Stats NZ reported CPI rose 0.6% in the December quarter, lifting annual inflation to 3.1% and topping both market expectations and the RBNZ’s target range.
- The outcome exceeded the RBNZ’s November projections of 0.2% quarterly and 2.7% annual inflation, prompting a reassessment of the policy outlook’s timing.
- Price gains were broad, with more than 80% of the CPI basket higher over the year, led by fuel, airfares and telecoms quarterly, and by electricity up 12.2% annually.
- Non-tradable inflation ran at 3.5% annually as rates and rents stayed firm, while tradables rose 3.0%, even as underlying measures held near 2.5%.
- Analysts expect the OCR to remain around 2.25% into early next year, with some warning a rate increase later in 2026 is possible if inflation proves persistent; markets also watch the BoJ for guidance on timing of future tightening and bond purchases.