Overview
- - The QSBO shows a seasonally adjusted net 39% of firms expect conditions to improve, up from 17% in Q3, with the unadjusted measure at 48% versus 18%.
- - Firms’ own trading activity stabilized, with a net 3% reporting a decline in the December quarter, as manufacturing optimism outpaced a still-weak construction sector.
- - A net 22% of businesses plan to add staff in the next quarter, and investment intentions for buildings and plant have turned positive.
- - Capacity utilisation rose to 89.8%, and NZIER notes early signs of labour shortages in services, manufacturing and building.
- - Cost and pricing indicators point to contained inflation, and NZIER expects no further cuts, with the OCR troughing at 2.25% before increases in H2 2026.