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New Youth Voter Cohorts Could Tip Close Argentine Races as Rolls Confirm 1.14 Million First-Timers

Whether they shift seats will depend on turnout, targeted mobilization, credible policy offers.

Overview

  • The definitive electoral roll lists 1,139,315 Argentines aged 16–17 nationwide, including 93,713 in Córdoba and 82,577 in Santa Fe eligible to vote on 26 October.
  • If Córdoba’s youth turnout repeats roughly 58% from the last national election, first-time voters would equal about 2.2 percentage points of the provincial electorate, a margin that could sway D’Hondt seat allocation in a tight contest for nine seats.
  • Voting for 16–17-year-olds is optional and average participation over the decade is near 55%, with wide provincial gaps that range from roughly 35% to 70% per CIPPEC–UNICEF, and Santa Fe estimating about 40% youth turnout in its 2023 provincial elections.
  • Recent sociological work finds waning motivation among younger cohorts, with only 32.3% of people under 35 saying they have a strong desire to vote, after youths were pivotal for Javier Milei in 2023.
  • Educational shortfalls and limited media-civic literacy add uncertainty, as Pruebas Aprender 2024 in Córdoba shows 35.3% below expected levels in Language and 80.1% in Math, while regional surveys in Peru highlight youth prioritizing jobs, security and realistic proposals.