Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects La Niña to influence the season, and NOAA’s city forecast leans warmer with equal chances for above- or below-normal precipitation.
- AccuWeather projects 17–21 inches of snow for New York City, below the 30-year average, while Buffalo is forecast to see about 90–100 inches, closer to its typical lake-effect totals.
- The Weather Channel’s early guidance highlights first measurable snow dates across New York, from late October in Buffalo to mid-December in Central Park, with NWS advising nearby-city benchmarks for towns not listed.
- Rapid Eurasian snowpack growth is being watched for its potential to weaken the polar vortex, a setup that can send Arctic air south and boost chances for intense cold and snow bursts in the Tri-State area.
- Early-season, wet snow has a history of outsized impacts on infrastructure, with the 2011 nor’easter causing millions of outages, prompting renewed calls for preparedness this fall and winter.