Overview
- Surveys over recent months show Zohran Mamdani ahead of Andrew Cuomo by roughly 4.5 to 16 points, with a late Atlas Intel poll narrowing the gap to 44%–39%.
- New York’s ranked‑choice system means no candidate wins without a majority of first‑choice ballots, making lower‑preference transfers potentially decisive in a three‑way field.
- Republican Curtis Sliwa polls around the mid‑teens and has refused to step aside, a dynamic that could influence transfers if counting proceeds beyond first choices.
- Early voting reached about 735,300 ballots, roughly four times the 2021 figure, signaling elevated interest in the contest.
- The race has been nationalized as President Trump labeled Mamdani a “communist” and said he prefers Cuomo, Barack Obama privately praised Mamdani’s campaign in a call, and Elon Musk urged support for Cuomo.