New York Times–Siena Poll Shows Democrats Leading 51–43 on Generic Congressional Ballot

The survey points to broad Democratic advantages on health care, the economy and immigration that could produce gains if younger and low-income voters turn out at higher rates.

Overview

The New York Times–Siena poll, released Tuesday, Sept. 15, surveyed 1,503 likely voters with fieldwork from Sept. 8–13 and found Democrats ahead 51% to 43% on the generic congressional ballot.
Democrats hold large issue leads, beating Republicans 60% to 36% on health care and by about seven points on both the economy and immigration.
Only 14% of respondents said the economy is better than a year ago and Republican optimism about the economy fell sharply from January to the current poll.
Independents and voters earning under $50,000 swung toward Democrats, with under-$50,000 voters favoring Democrats 63% to 31%, while older white men remain more pro-GOP and more likely to report they are almost certain to vote.
The poll offers an early warning for both parties because turnout gaps and how Democratic support is spread across districts could determine whether the national lead converts into House and Senate seat gains.