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New York Fed Finds K‑Shaped Hit From Gas Price Spike

A supply shock tied to the Iran war at the Strait of Hormuz drove a price‑led jump in March gas bills.

Overview

  • Using Numerator data from a 200,000‑person panel, the New York Fed reports a sharp split in how income groups handled the surge in fuel costs.
  • In March 2026, dollars spent on gasoline rose more than 15% even as the amount of fuel bought fell about 3%.
  • Lower‑income households purchased 7% less gasoline but still paid about 13% more in nominal terms.
  • Higher‑income households kept usage nearly steady, with spending up roughly 19% and volumes down about 1%.
  • The Fed says this divide is wider than the 2022 energy shock, with many low‑income drivers likely turning to carpooling or public transit to cope.