Overview

• The U.S. has imposed new sanctions on Russia's oil sector, targeting major producers, over 180 tankers, and shadow fleet operators evading earlier restrictions.
• These sanctions are expected to significantly disrupt Russian oil supply chains, potentially tightening global oil markets, though the IEA forecasts an overall surplus in 2025.
• The measures could drain billions from Russia's economy, which heavily relies on oil revenue to fund its war in Ukraine and rising defense spending.
• Russia's shadow fleet, used to bypass price caps and sanctions, faces increased pressure as sanctioned tankers are sidelined by key buyers like India and China.
• Oil prices have risen on concerns about reduced Russian supply, but non-OPEC+ production growth and existing reserves may mitigate long-term price spikes.