Overview

• A refined global surface air temperature (GSAT) record from University of Graz researchers reduces uncertainty by integrating air and sea data into a single benchmark.
• The benchmark shows 2024 as the warmest year on record, with temperatures reaching 1.39°C above pre-industrial levels.
• Using the new GSAT record alongside climate model projections, the team estimates the 1.5°C threshold will be crossed by 2028 with a ±2-year range.
• The updated dataset records a 6% higher increase in surface air warming than conventional monitoring methods that blend sea and air temperatures.
• A proposed four-class assessment framework would provide real-time, standardized monitoring of compliance with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals.