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New temperature record suggests 1.5°C Paris target could be breached by 2028

The researchers detail a four-tier compliance scale for measuring progress toward Paris Agreement targets.

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Overview

  • A refined global surface air temperature (GSAT) record from University of Graz researchers reduces uncertainty by integrating air and sea data into a single benchmark.
  • The benchmark shows 2024 as the warmest year on record, with temperatures reaching 1.39°C above pre-industrial levels.
  • Using the new GSAT record alongside climate model projections, the team estimates the 1.5°C threshold will be crossed by 2028 with a ±2-year range.
  • The updated dataset records a 6% higher increase in surface air warming than conventional monitoring methods that blend sea and air temperatures.
  • A proposed four-class assessment framework would provide real-time, standardized monitoring of compliance with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals.