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5h ago

New Synthesis Finds Sharp Drop in Nonbinary and Trans Identification Among U.S. College Students

The latest analysis uses FIRE’s 2025 poll of more than 50,000 undergraduates to show declines concentrated in responses outside the male–female binary.

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LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM - APRIL 20, 2024: Transgender people and their supporters protest in Parliament Square against a ban on puberty blockers in London, United Kingdom on April 20, 2024. From April 1 National Health Service (NHS) as well as private clinics stopped prescribing drugs suppressing sex hormones during puberty to young people seeking gender transition following the independent review of gender identity services for children under 18 led by Dr Hilary Cass. (Photo credit should read Wiktor Szymanowicz/Future Publishing via Getty Images)

Overview

  • Eric Kaufmann’s October 2025 report, drawing on FIRE data, estimates 3.6% of undergraduates identified as a gender other than male or female in 2025, down from 5.2% in 2024 and 6.8% in 2022–2023.
  • Institutional surveys cited in the synthesis show larger drops at elite schools, including Andover Phillips Academy falling from about 7.4–9.2% in 2023 to roughly 3% in 2025 and Brown University from about 5% in 2022–2023 to 2.6% in 2025.
  • The compilation spans multiple sources—FIRE, HERI, campus surveys, and CDC high school data—with differing question wording that can affect whether declines reflect nonbinary identification rather than all transgender identities.
  • Kaufmann argues the reversal does not track with shifts in politics or religiosity and posits improved student mental health as a partial factor, while likening the pattern to a fading trend.
  • Recent figures from UCLA’s Williams Institute report an estimated 724,000 transgender-identifying youth ages 13–17 (about 3.3%), underscoring divergent patterns across age groups.