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New Study Warns Tropical Prochlorococcus Could Halve as Oceans Warm

The projection rests on a decade of SeaFlow observations across more than 100 cruises with climate-driven modeling.

Francois Ribalet, a research associate professor at the University of Washington's School of Oceanography, works atop a SeaFlow, an instrument used to detect Prochlorococcus, in his Seattle lab Friday, Sept. 5, 2025. (AP Photo/Annika Hammerschlag)
The SeaFlow, a custom-built flow cytometer developed by University of Washington researchers, which uses lasers to detect Prochlorococcus, sits in a lab on Friday, Sept. 5, 2025, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Annika Hammerschlag)
Francois Ribalet, a research associate professor at the University of Washington's School of Oceanography, pulls a vial of Prochlorococcus on Friday, Sept. 5, 2025, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Annika Hammerschlag)
Francois Ribalet, a research associate professor at the University of Washington's School of Oceanography, holds a vial of Prochlorococcus on Friday, Sept. 5, 2025, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Annika Hammerschlag)

Overview

  • Nature Microbiology reports tropical Prochlorococcus productivity could drop about 17% under moderate warming and up to 51% under higher warming, with global declines of roughly 10% to 37%.
  • The analysis draws on continuous in situ counts of about 800 billion cells collected with SeaFlow across close to 100 research cruises over roughly 150,000 miles.
  • Field data show optimal growth between about 66–84°F, with division rates plunging above ~86°F as many tropical surfaces are projected to exceed roughly 82°F in coming decades.
  • Prochlorococcus occupies up to three-quarters of sunlit surface waters and contributes a significant share of marine primary production and oxygen generation.
  • Populations are expected to shift poleward rather than disappear, with authors describing the projections as conservative and noting that warmer-tolerant Synechococcus is not a full substitute.