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New Study Warns of Mid‑Century ‘Peak Glacier Extinction,’ With Up to 4,000 Lost Each Year

Limiting warming to 1.5–2°C would spare tens of thousands of small glaciers, researchers say.

Overview

  • Peer‑reviewed research in Nature Climate Change modeled more than 200,000 glaciers and finds roughly 79% will disappear by 2100 on the current ~2.7°C path.
  • Annual glacier losses are projected to peak at about 2,000 per year around 2041 at 1.5°C, ~3,000 per year from 2040–2060 at 2.7°C, and ~4,000 in the mid‑2050s at 4°C.
  • The European Alps are expected to reach their regional peak soon after 2025 and lose up to 97% of glaciers this century at 2.7°C, with Western Canada and the U.S. also facing near‑total losses.
  • Smaller‑glacier regions such as the Alps and subtropical Andes face earlier, rapid disappearances, while larger high‑latitude systems like Greenland and the Russian Arctic peak later and decline beyond 2100.
  • The study releases a glacier‑by‑glacier survival database and highlights risks to water supplies for about 2 billion people, tourism and cultural heritage, flood hazards, and roughly 25 cm of sea‑level rise this century from non‑ice‑sheet glaciers.