Overview

• A peer-reviewed analysis of extended CMIP6 simulations to years 2300–2500 finds all nine high‑emission runs evolve to a weak, shallow state with deep overturning shutting down after 2100, with some intermediate and low‑emission runs showing shutdown too.
• The study reports modeled collapse probabilities of about 70 percent under high emissions, 37 percent under intermediate emissions, and 25 percent even under low‑emission pathways.
• Researchers identify a tipping point tied to winter deep‑convection collapse in the Labrador, Irminger and Nordic seas, with full AMOC shutdown developing 50 to 100 years after the tipping threshold is crossed.
• Projected impacts include much colder winters and drier summers in northwestern Europe, shifts in tropical rainfall belts, and regional sea‑level rise of roughly 50 centimeters affecting parts of the U.S. East Coast.
• Authors note recent 5–10 year declines in deep convection consistent with model signals and warn many models omit extra Greenland meltwater, while scientists and EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra urge rapid emissions cuts in response.