Overview
- The MaiaSpace paper argues that routine burn‑up under Design for Demise produces NOx through high‑temperature shock chemistry and alumina particles that can accelerate ozone depletion.
- Authors highlight modeling that projects about a 650% increase in stratospheric alumina over coming decades and point to NOAA SABRE data detecting alumina within some stratospheric particles, while stressing uncertainties.
- Design for Non‑Demise would keep spacecraft intact through reentry and steer them to remote ocean zones to limit high‑altitude emissions.
- Adopting this approach would require stronger structures and extra propellant, increasing mass and launch costs, and it would recalibrate trade‑offs between atmospheric impacts and ground safety.
- Regulators currently apply a 1‑in‑10,000 individual casualty risk threshold per reentry, yet mega‑constellations and reports of rising oxide loads — including a study noting an eightfold increase over six years — are prompting calls for better risk metrics and further study.