Overview
- Published in Communications Earth & Environment, the study integrates speleothem and lake proxies with long-running climate and hydrological simulations to map basin-scale water availability.
- Reconstructions indicate regional warming of about 0.5°C and a 10–20% drop in annual rainfall, producing sustained reductions in river discharge across the Indus basin.
- Four prolonged drought episodes between roughly 4,450 and 3,400 years ago each exceeded 85 years in duration, with the most severe lasting 102–164 years and impacting over 90% of the region.
- One 113-year drought dated to approximately 3,531–3,418 years ago aligns with archaeological evidence for widespread deurbanization of major Harappan centers.
- Findings point to population dispersal toward the Himalayan foothills, the Ganga plains, and coastal western India with smaller communities and drought-tolerant crops, while proposed Pacific–Atlantic teleconnections weakening the monsoon remain under study.