Overview

• An ANU-led, peer-reviewed paper in npj Climate Action presents a first-of-its-kind method to attribute climate impacts to a single fossil-fuel project using the TCRE framework.
• The study estimates Scarborough’s lifetime emissions at about 876 million tonnes of CO2 over roughly 31 years from 2026, contributing around 0.00039–0.0004°C to global warming.
• Authors project about 516,000 additional people exposed to unprecedented heat, roughly 484 extra heat-related deaths in Europe by century’s end with a net 118 after cold-death reductions, and 16 million more coral colonies lost per Great Barrier Reef bleaching event.
• The analysis finds Scarborough’s Australian emissions would account for nearly half of the national annual CO2 budget by 2049, with post‑2050 output requiring durable carbon removal not currently available at scale.
• Woodside rejects single‑project attribution for climate change and says the development targets low carbon intensity and will minimize direct emissions through efficiency measures.