Overview

• The Environmental Research Letters paper identifies 16 extreme heat, drought and rainfall events since 2022 that triggered sharp price rises across staples including vegetables, olive oil and rice.
• Many of the analysed extremes surpassed any historical records before 2020, underscoring the growing volatility of climate-driven supply shocks.
• Examples include a 280% jump in cocoa prices after a 2024 West Africa heatwave, a 300% surge in Australian lettuce following 2022 floods and more than 70% hikes for cabbage and rice in East Asia.
• The findings warn that such price spikes exacerbate food insecurity and overall inflation and pose risks to low-income households, central bank policies and political stability.
• The researchers urge faster emissions cuts and strengthened adaptation measures to curb future food inflation ahead of the UN Food Systems Summit.