Overview
- The peer‑reviewed analysis finds that about 62,000 breeding adults that nested in 2004 died by 2011, with survival during the annual molt closely tied to food availability.
- Sardine biomass off western South Africa stayed below 25% of its peak through most of 2004–2011 as fishing pressure and environmental shifts reduced local prey.
- Exploitation of sardines briefly reached roughly 80% in 2006, a level the authors say likely intensified starvation risk for penguins.
- The study draws on counts from 1995–2015 and capture–mark–recapture estimates, using a prey index based on Cape gannet diet to track sardine and anchovy availability.
- Fewer than 10,000 breeding pairs remain globally, the species is listed as Critically Endangered, and responses include purse‑seine fishing bans near six colonies and measures such as artificial nests and rehabilitation.