Overview
- The analysis reports that between 2004 and 2011 roughly 62,000 adults died at the Dassen and Robben Island colonies near Cape Town as sardine abundance stayed below 25% of its maximum.
- Researchers attribute the prey shortfall to combined fishing pressure and environmental shifts, including temperature and salinity changes that altered sardine spawning.
- South Africa has enacted a 10‑year commercial fishing ban around six colonies and is adding measures such as artificial nests, new colonies and intensified monitoring.
- Adult survival was strongly tied to prey availability, with starvation risk spiking during the annual 21‑day molt when penguins cannot feed.
- The team cautions that, if current declines continue, the species could disappear from the wild by around 2035.