New Studies Press Petrobras to Shift From Oil, Warn of Stranded-Asset Risk

Overview

• Two coordinated reports from UFRJ economists and the Observatório do Clima set out pathways for Petrobras to diversify into second‑ and third‑generation biofuels, low‑carbon hydrogen, sustainable aviation fuel, EV charging, and refinery retooling.
• The researchers say Petrobras’ 2025–2029 plan devotes only US$9.1 billion of US$111 billion to low‑carbon items and criticize what they call limited execution of decarbonization investments to date.
• Petrobras counters that low‑carbon spending totals US$16.3 billion in the period, detailing budgets for renewables, hydrogen and carbon capture, bioproducts, ethanol, biorrefining, biodiesel and biomethane, plus a US$1.3 billion decarbonization fund and US$1.0 billion in related R&D.
• The studies warn that opening new exploration frontiers such as the Foz do Amazonas and the Pelotas Basin increases the likelihood of stranded assets and a potential “carbon bubble” as climate policy tightens and fossil‑fuel demand declines.
• The authors urge aligning the company with Brazil’s climate targets and prioritizing existing producing areas like the pre‑salt, though one UFRJ economist argues that evaluating new blocks remains important for reserve replacement.