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New START Set to Lapse This Week as Russia Says One-Year Limits Offer Still Stands

Moscow warns that losing legal caps and inspections would erode trust.

Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev attends an interview with Reuters, TASS and WarGonzo in the Moscow region, Russia January 29, 2026. Dmitry Medvedev's Secretariat/Handout via REUTERS

Overview

  • The last U.S.-Russia nuclear arms treaty is due to expire on February 5, removing legally binding limits that cap each side at 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and restrict deployed missiles and bombers.
  • Dmitry Medvedev said the potential lapse should alarm the world and reiterated that Russia’s proposal to voluntarily observe current limits for one year remains available.
  • Russian officials say they have received no formal U.S. response to the one-year offer, and President Donald Trump recently indicated he would let the accord expire in favor of pursuing a different agreement.
  • Russia suspended its participation in 2023, halting on-site inspections and data exchanges that had underpinned verification for years.
  • Experts warn that without legal constraints and verification, both sides could expand forces without transparency, increasing strategic uncertainty.