Overview
- The last U.S.–Russia strategic arms treaty expires on February 5, 2026, ending legally binding caps and leaving inspections and data exchanges suspended since Russia halted participation in 2023.
- Vladimir Putin proposed that Russia would observe New START numerical limits for one year after expiry if the United States reciprocates, but Washington has issued no formal acceptance.
- President Trump previously called the offer a good idea and later said, “If it expires, it expires,” reflecting public noncommitment as the deadline approaches.
- Former U.S. official Jon Wolfsthal criticized the lack of follow‑up, saying no staff were tasked to engage Moscow on the one‑year arrangement.
- Analysts outline divergent paths after lapse, including quiet mutual restraint, a bid to resume limited verification such as data exchanges, or a U.S. “upload” of reserve warheads toward an estimated ~3,500, while Russian commentators claim Moscow can respond with advanced systems.