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41m ago

New START Set to Expire Thursday as U.S. Weighs Russia’s One-Year Limits Offer

The loss of caps and inspections removes transparency, raising the risk of rapid, unverified buildups.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov attends a press conference in Moscow, Russia November 26, 2025. REUTERS/Anastasia Barashkova
Barack Obama (L) and Dmitry Medvedev, who were then the U.S. and Russian presidents, sign the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START II) at Prague Castle in Prague April 8, 2010. REUTERS/Jason Reed/File Photo
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Overview

  • New START, signed in 2010 and extended once in 2021, expires on February 5, ending legal limits of 1,550 deployed warheads and strict caps on delivery systems and inspections.
  • Moscow says its proposal to voluntarily observe those limits for one additional year still stands, but Kremlin officials report no formal response from Washington.
  • President Donald Trump has signaled he may let the pact lapse and seeks a broader agreement that includes China, with the White House saying he will decide on his own timeline.
  • Inspections paused in 2020 and Russia’s 2023 suspension of participation halted data exchanges, leaving verification mechanisms moribund even before the treaty’s legal expiry.
  • Arms-control experts warn the lapse could spur unverified ‘uploads’ and a renewed arms race as U.S. planners reportedly prepare for a no-treaty environment and Russian officials say they are ready.