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New START Set to Expire Thursday as Russia Repeats One-Year Offer and U.S. Holds Out

The lapse would leave the two largest nuclear powers without enforceable caps for the first time in decades.

Overview

  • Kremlin officials say Moscow’s proposal to informally observe New START’s numerical limits for one year remains available through Feb. 5, but report no formal U.S. response.
  • Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov says Russia is prepared for a world with no arms‑control limits, calling Washington’s silence a de facto answer.
  • The treaty’s end would erase the last legal ceiling on deployed strategic warheads and delivery systems, with inspections and data exchanges already halted since Russia’s 2023 suspension.
  • President Donald Trump has signaled he may let the pact lapse while seeking a broader deal that includes China, which Beijing rejects as unreasonable given its smaller arsenal.
  • Analysts and senior figures, including Barack Obama, warn the loss of limits and transparency could spur uploads of reserve warheads and a three‑way arms buildup, as Russia also presses to count British and French forces in any future framework.