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New START Set to Expire as Russia Repeats One-Year Limits Offer and U.S. Stays Noncommittal

Experts warn the lapse will raise nuclear risks by ending verification.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov attends a press conference in Moscow, Russia November 26, 2025. REUTERS/Anastasia Barashkova
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US President Barack Obama (L) and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev hold documents after signing the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) in Prague on April 8, 2010. Obama and Medvedev signed the treaty on April 8, committing their nations to major nuclear arms cuts and boosting Obama's drive for a world without atomic weapons. AFP PHOTO / YURI KADOBNOV (Photo credit should read YURI KADOBNOV/AFP via Getty Images)

Overview

  • The treaty’s Feb. 5 expiry would remove the last legal caps on U.S. and Russian deployed strategic forces.
  • The Kremlin says its proposal to observe New START’s numerical limits for one year on a reciprocal basis remains on the table without a U.S. reply.
  • Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov says Russia is ready for a world with no limits, while spokesman Dmitry Peskov warns the situation will become more perilous.
  • President Donald Trump has said, “If it expires, it expires,” favoring a broader pact, and the White House says he will set the path forward on his timeline.
  • Former U.S. negotiator Rose Gottemoeller urges accepting a one-year preservation of limits, warning Moscow could rapidly upload warheads and that inspections and data exchanges have already withered since 2020–2023.