Overview
- The last U.S.–Russia strategic arms pact expires on February 5, ending caps that limited each side to 1,550 deployed warheads and defined strict ceilings on delivery systems.
- Russia halted inspections and data exchanges in 2023, leaving both governments to rely on national intelligence and removing structured transparency that reduced misinterpretation.
- Vladimir Putin proposed both sides informally observe New START’s quantitative limits for one year, but President Donald Trump has not issued a formal response after calling the idea “a good one.”
- Analysts say the lapse could spur an unregulated buildup, noting Russia can upload additional warheads relatively quickly while the United States faces production bottlenecks and costly, delayed modernization programs.
- U.S. debate is split between accepting a short-term restraint to buy time and lifting limits to counter China’s growth, even as Beijing rejects joining trilateral talks and Moscow signals it will calibrate its response to U.S. moves.