Overview
- The last quantitative caps on U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces lapse on February 5, 2026, when the New START treaty expires.
- Moscow has proposed a one-year reciprocal adherence to the treaty’s central limits, but Russian envoys say Washington appears unwilling to accept, and President Trump said, "If it expires, it expires."
- Russia suspended participation in 2023, halting on-site inspections and data exchanges, and the United States has relied on national technical means for monitoring.
- Experts and lawmakers remain divided over a one-year political commitment, with some arguing it would buy time to address China’s buildup and others warning it could constrain U.S. upload plans and procurement.
- The treaty provides no mechanism for a formal extension beyond February 5, so any continuation would be a nonbinding arrangement with unresolved verification issues.