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New START Limits Poised to Expire Feb. 5 With No U.S.–Russia Deal to Keep Caps

Russia has floated a reciprocal one-year freeze, with U.S. officials showing no sign of acceptance.

Overview

  • Russia’s envoy Mikhail Ulyanov warned the final quantitative caps on U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces will lapse when New START expires on February 5.
  • Moscow has proposed maintaining the treaty’s ceilings for one year on a voluntary, reciprocal basis, but Russian officials say Washington has not accepted the offer.
  • President Donald Trump recently told the New York Times he was unbothered by the impending expiration, stating, “If it expires, it expires.”
  • New START’s central limits set 700 deployed ICBMs, SLBMs, and bombers, 1,550 deployed warheads, and 800 total deployed and nondeployed launchers and bombers.
  • A new CRS overview says the treaty cannot be extended under its terms, describes debate over a nonbinding political commitment, and highlights verification gaps and China-related force planning as key concerns.