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New START Expires, Leaving U.S. and Russia Without Nuclear Caps

Prospects for a successor deal are complicated by Moscow’s call to keep talking on current limits plus Washington’s push to include China, which Beijing rejects.

Overview

  • Russia declared it is no longer bound by the treaty, pledged to act responsibly, warned of possible military‑technical countermeasures, and said it remains open to dialogue.
  • President Donald Trump has not accepted Vladimir Putin’s one‑year carryover of limits and is seeking a broader agreement that includes China, which Beijing has publicly refused.
  • Reports described last‑minute discussions in Abu Dhabi to preserve key terms, but no binding arrangement was announced, and U.S. European Command said high‑level military contacts will be re‑established.
  • With New START’s lapse following years of suspended inspections and Russia’s 2023 freeze on verification, transparency measures such as data exchanges and notifications have effectively ended.
  • UN officials and independent experts warned the loss of legal limits raises the risk of an arms buildup, noting both sides could upload hundreds of additional warheads over time.