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New Simulation Finds H5 Bird Flu Could Reach Community Spread in 48 Hours

A peer-reviewed BharatSim study pinpoints a brief window when early isolation with rapid bird culling can still prevent a wider outbreak.

Overview

  • The BMC Public Health study modeled a 9,600–10,000‑person community in Namakkal, Tamil Nadu, using the BharatSim agent-based platform to trace spillover from poultry into households, schools, and workplaces.
  • Quarantining at the point of roughly two human infections most often halted spread, whereas waiting until about 10 cases produced outcomes nearly indistinguishable from taking no action.
  • Targeted poultry culling reduced spillover risk only when carried out quickly, with effectiveness dropping sharply if delayed beyond roughly 10 days after detection.
  • The findings arrive as H5 viruses continue to circulate widely in animals, including dairy cattle, and WHO records around 990 human H5N1 cases with about 48% fatality since 2003.
  • U.S. detections and herd infections declined in 2025, leading the CDC to end its emergency response in July, yet a recent H5N5 human death and persistent animal outbreaks keep the risk active.