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New SETI Model Finds Nearby Advanced Civilizations Unlikely

Published in The Astronomical Journal, the analysis suggests the best chances now lie in searches thousands of light-years away.

Overview

  • Researchers simulated technosignatures as light-speed emissions with varying durations and ranges to estimate how many would have intersected Earth.
  • Under detection ranges of a few hundred to a few thousand light-years, the model implies an implausibly large number of past signals should already have crossed Earth unnoticed.
  • The finding challenges the idea that decades of silence are chiefly due to weak instruments and points to low odds of advanced societies in our local galactic region.
  • The study differentiates omnidirectional outputs, such as waste heat, from focused beacons or laser pulses, noting distinct detection hurdles for each.
  • Authored by EPFL physicist Claudio Grimaldi, the work urges expanding survey distances by several thousand light-years while refining sensitivity, pointing, and signal discrimination.