Overview
- An analysis by the Cleveland Fed finds the job-finding rate for young college graduates has fallen to roughly match that of high-school graduates, ending a longstanding edge.
- For young workers, unemployment exit dynamics flipped around 2019, with high-school graduates now more likely than college graduates to leave unemployment in a given month.
- The overall unemployment-rate gap by education persists over the long run, with high-school graduates facing at least a 2.3‑point higher rate since 2000 and a peak gap of about 7.8 points during the Great Recession.
- Recent labor-market softening has lifted joblessness for young adults, with reporting citing a 9.2% unemployment rate for 20‑ to 24‑year‑olds in September, up 2.2 points from a year earlier.
- Researchers caution that recent AI developments do not explain the decades-long decline in college job-finding rates, and note that college graduates who do secure jobs still enjoy a wage premium and greater job stability.