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3h ago

New Reports Flag Steep 2026 ACA Rate Hikes and $32 Billion Provider Hit as Subsidy Fight Nears Deadline

Lawmakers face a stopgap deadline that could decide the fate of the enhanced credits before open enrollment.

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WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 02: Freedom Caucus Chair Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD) talks to reporters as he walks to the House Chamber at the U.S. Capitol on July 02, 2025 in Washington, DC. House Republicans continue their work to pass the Senate version of the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act, President Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
When the news outlet Semafor asked U.S. Sen. John Cornyn about the possibility of allowing the health insurance subsidies to expire, he responded: “I don’t think that’s a good idea.”
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Overview

  • Enhanced ACA premium tax credits are set to expire Dec. 31 unless Congress acts, with open enrollment starting Nov. 1 and locking in 2026 prices.
  • The Urban Institute and Robert Wood Johnson Foundation estimate providers would lose $32.1 billion in revenue in 2026 and face $7.7 billion more in uncompensated care, with outsized effects in non‑Medicaid‑expansion states.
  • A snapshot from Sen. Maria Cantwell’s office shows the top marketplace insurer seeking 20% or more increases in 29 states, including nearly 49% in Arizona and about 27% in Washington (21% average approved there).
  • KFF projects consumers’ premium payments would rise about 75% on average without the enhanced credits, and CBO estimates roughly 2 million people would lose coverage next year.
  • Democrats are pressing to attach an extension to a short‑term funding bill due by Oct. 1, while Republicans want a separate debate, as marketplaces like Pennsylvania’s Pennie prepare to send higher 2026 notices if no deal emerges.