Overview
- India placed the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance in April following the Pahalgam attack, changing the legal guardrails on cross‑border river operations.
- Pakistan’s dams can store roughly 30 days of Indus flow and about 80% of its irrigated agriculture depends on the basin, leaving little buffer against disruptions.
- The report says India cannot fully stop or divert the rivers but can influence the timing of releases within technical limits, creating leverage over downstream conditions.
- In May, India conducted unnotified reservoir flushing at the Salal and Baglihar dams on the Chenab, drying stretches in Pakistan before sending sediment‑laden flows.
- The study notes rising regional stakes, with Afghanistan moving to advance a Kunar River dam, China reportedly accelerating work at Pakistan’s Mohmand site, and a warning that a treaty collapse could draw in outside actors such as Saudi Arabia.