Overview

• Planned output through 2030 exceeds a 1.5°C‑consistent level by about 120% and a 2°C level by roughly 77%, the consortium’s fifth Production Gap Report finds.
• Twenty major producers that supply around 80% of global fossil fuels plan further increases, with 17 intending to raise production by 2030.
• Authors warn that delaying steep cuts would exhaust the 1.5°C carbon budget by the 2030s and force even more drastic reductions later.
• Coal production is expected to decline before 2030, while oil and gas expand toward 2050, with Russia, Qatar and the United States growing gas, India and China adding coal, and Saudi Arabia, Brazil and the United States boosting oil.
• The study criticizes public financing for new fossil infrastructure as lock‑in and notes the findings land as countries prepare revised climate pledges for the UN summit in Belém.