Overview

• Decision Desk HQ’s September analysis, drawing on party registration data through Jan. 1, 2025, finds significant erosion in Democratic registration among Gen Z men across 31 states that track party affiliation.
• Democratic registration among young white men fell from historical norms around 49% to 29%, while young non-white men dropped from about 66% to 54%, with young white women steady near 47% and young non-white women down from over 80% to 75%.
• The registration review captures only Republican and Democratic sign-ups and excludes independents, and analysts caution that youth coalitions remain volatile and can shift quickly between cycles.
• A June poll by Ben Tulchin’s firm with NextGen America showed a stark gender split on a generic ballot, with young women favoring Democrats 66%–24% and young men favoring Republicans 48%–42%.
• Other surveys highlight internal divides among young voters, including a Yale Youth Poll showing ages 18–21 leaning Republican and ages 22–29 leaning Democratic, as Democrats weigh economic messaging and campus organizing to regain ground with young men.