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New Regional Polls Put Decaro and Stefani Well Ahead, With Campania Still Competitive

Divergent turnout estimates from Ipsos and Noto underline uncertainty over how these advantages translate to the 23–24 November vote.

Overview

  • Ipsos finds Antonio Decaro at 63.8% in Puglia versus Luigi Lobuono at 33.1%, with current turnout modeled at about 43% based on 39% certain and 17% probable voters.
  • Noto’s latest survey estimates Decaro at 65% in Puglia, Alberto Stefani at 61% in Veneto against Giovanni Manildo at 35%, and Roberto Fico at 52% in Campania to Edmondo Cirielli’s 45%.
  • Campania remains the closest contest in these polls, with a seven-point Fico edge indicating a race still within single digits.
  • Participation projections differ notably, as Noto reports overall turnout near 56% while Ipsos flags a much lower figure in Puglia.
  • Ipsos’ party snapshot in Puglia shows PD at 23.5%, FdI 17.3%, Forza Italia 9.6%, Lega 4.5%, and M5S 8.7%, alongside strong Decaro-linked civic lists.