New Quaest Poll Shows Voters Reject Lula–Bolsonaro Polarization as Fragmented Opposition Gains

Overview

• Most respondents say neither should run in 2026, with 59% opposed to Lula’s candidacy and 67% saying Bolsonaro should step aside.
• Lula holds above 30% in every first‑round simulation, yet his standing softened among independents as rejection in that group rose to 64% while the Bolsonaro family faces a roughly 70% rejection floor.
• Quaest director Felipe Nunes says having more opposition contenders boosts their combined vote share, with one scenario showing the opposition at 50% against Lula’s 31%.
• Consolidation can reduce the opposition’s total, as in a scenario where Tarcísio de Freitas, Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos sum to 31% against Lula’s 39%, which would deliver him a first‑round victory.
• The survey, commissioned by Genial Investimentos, interviewed 2,004 people from November 6–9 and carries a margin of error of ±2 percentage points at 95% confidence.