New Quaest Poll Puts Lula and Bolsonaro in Technical Tie for 2026 Runoff

Overview

• Lula registers 42% to Jair Bolsonaro’s 39% in a head-to-head, a technical tie within the poll’s ±2-point margin of error from 2,004 interviews conducted Nov. 6–9 for Genial Investimentos.
• In first-round tests, Lula tops all scenarios, varying from 31% to 39% depending on the field of rivals.
• Compared with October, Lula falls four points and Bolsonaro gains three, narrowing the gap recorded in the previous release.
• Second-round leads versus other opponents also shrink, including Tarcísio de Freitas (41%–36% now vs 45%–33% before) and Romeu Zema (43%–36% now vs 47%–32% before), even as Bolsonaro remains currently ineligible.
• Rejection and vote-potential measures stay within the margin of error, with Eduardo Bolsonaro the most rejected figure as 67% say they would not vote for him.