New Quaest Poll Puts Lula Ahead in All Runoffs as Margins Tighten

Overview

• Lula leads every tested second‑round pairing, now 44% to 39% versus Tarcísio de Freitas and 45% to 38% versus Flávio Bolsonaro, with both gaps smaller than in December, according to a Jan. 8–11 Quaest survey of 2,004 people (±2 pts).
• Government approval remains essentially tied at 47% approve and 49% disapprove, with independents breaking 53% to 38% against the government and 56% saying Lula does not deserve another term.
• Regional splits sharpened as disapproval in the Southeast widened to 56% versus 40% approval, while the Northeast moved strongly pro‑government with 67% approval and 30% disapproval.
• Flávio Bolsonaro has consolidated as the main opposition contender, placing second in first‑round scenarios, with more voters viewing his bid as definitive (54%) and his rejection falling from 60% to 55%.
• Tarcísio de Freitas emerges as the most competitive non‑Bolsonaro alternative and narrows the runoff deficit, while O Globo cautions that early‑year leads often compress, noting Lula’s higher rejection and weaker spontaneous support than in January 2022.