Overview

• The SEI, IISD and Climate Analytics report finds planned 2030 output is about 120% above a 1.5°C pathway and 77% above what is compatible with 2°C.
• The analysis covers 20 countries responsible for roughly 80% of global fossil fuel production, with 17 planning to increase at least one fuel by 2030.
• Since 2023, governments have raised projections, with coal declines pushed to 2035, gas growth extending to 2050, and oil production still rising to 2050.
• Eleven of the 20 producers have upgraded extraction outlooks since 2023, reflecting renewed interest in LNG and a slower anticipated coal decline in China.
• Only six countries now have production trajectories broadly aligned with net‑zero goals, up from four in the 2023 edition.