New Polls Show Support for Margem Equatorial Oil Exploration Surging, 2026 Runoffs Tightening

Overview

• A Genial/Quaest survey conducted in person on Nov. 6–9 finds 42% favor exploring oil in the Margem Equatorial, up from 26% in October, while opposition fell to 49% from 70% (2,004 interviews; ±2 pp).
• In the same Quaest poll, views on COP30’s effect on Brazil are split at 41% saying it will bring positive results and 41% saying it will make no difference; fieldwork concluded before the summit opened in Belém.
• Outlets note this is the first national polling released after the Rio de Janeiro police mega‑operation that left more than 120 dead, providing an initial read of public opinion during its political fallout.
• A separate Paraná Pesquisas national poll (Nov. 6–10) reports presidential job approval at 45.9% and disapproval at 50.9% (2,020 interviews; ±2.2 pp).
• Paraná Pesquisas shows Lula ahead in multiple first‑round 2026 scenarios and in second‑round tests he is in a statistical tie with Jair Bolsonaro, Michelle Bolsonaro and Tarcísio de Freitas, leading only against Flávio Bolsonaro.