New Polls Show Lula’s Approval Stalls as Security Dominates, Support for Equatorial Margin Drilling Surges

Overview

• Genial/Quaest finds 47% approval and 50% disapproval for Lula, echoed by Paraná Pesquisas at 45.9% approval and 50.9% disapproval.
• National concern about violence rises to 38%, with 46% prioritizing tougher laws and longer sentences to curb crime.
• The Rio operation that left 121 dead is approved by 67% of Brazilians, while 25% disapprove.
• Backers of Petrobras prospecting in the Equatorial Margin jump from 26% to 42% as opposition falls from 70% to 49%, following Ibama’s licensing step.
• Paraná’s 2026 tests show Lula leading first-round scenarios but in technical ties in runoffs, including 43.7% to 43.1% versus Jair Bolsonaro; 45% also see Lula stronger after meeting President Trump, and 51% expect a tariff deal.